A Billion Votes, A Billion Hopes in 2019 (Part 2): Iss Baar Fir, Kiski Sarkaar…

“Iss baar Modi ka Wapis aana mushkil hai”! (This time its difficult for Modi to return to power) claimed a grocery shopkeeper. The other customer standing on the counter responded “Mushkil to hai… Par aayega firse Modi.. Baaki sab chor hai” (Yes its difficult.. But still Modi will return – Rest are thieves). These market conversations in India are sometimes the best indicator of the winds in Indian elections context, mostly better than the experts predicting the biggest festival of Democracy in the world. With around 90 Crore voters, Indian elections are biggest Democratic event across the globe, and to put it in context the most complicated one keeping in mind that Indian is referred as a sub-continent with most heterogeneous population.


5 Years back when Modi was campaigning for BJP as a PM candidate, I had mentioned that out of various challenges he would face, the biggest would be to live upto the expectations he was setting up amongst the public at large in case he wins. After the historic mandate BJP won in 2014, Modi has been tirelessly working to deliver on those expectations he had set up – But he should have expected this when he was promising the moon to the electorate 5 years back. Modi might still like to take the credit that one thing which has remained constant is that 5 years back the elections revolved around him as a challenger, 5 years later the entire elections again revolve around Modi – This time as an incumbent – This happens to be the biggest challenge in a country like India where anti-incumbency is generally stronger than pro-incumbency, especially at Centre.

After having followed the campaigning for last several months, it would be safe to say that though the country is voting to select 543 Members to the Parliament, essentially barring a few states in South India, almost on every seat people are voting either For or Against Modi. Like 2014, elections have again been converted into a presidential contest. The Big difference is that the opposition has made certain strategic partnerships to corner the NDA government in certain key states like UP, Bihar and Karnataka in addition to the fact that BJP is facing anti-incumbency in several Hindi heartland states where it lost power to Congress in recent state polls. Understanding the challenge at hand, the BJP has worked on a two prong strategy – To try and retain maximum possible seats in the North and West where it almost swept las time and gain in North East, West Bengal and Orrisa to compensate for its losses in the heartland states.

Buoyant Congress is expecting to make gains under more confident Rahul from its 44 tally in 2014 from the states where it won in recent state elections and with some pacts it has sealed with DMK, TDP and RJD. Non NDA and non UPA regional parties are again very optimistic with likes of Mayawati, Akhilesh hopeful of Mahagathbandan in UP (BSP joining hands with SP and RLD), Mamta in West Bengal, YSR in Andhra, Naveen Patnaik in Orrisa, KCR hoping TRS clean sweep in Telangana are all hoping to get maximum seats in their respective states to be in a position to call the shorts in case NDA was unable to get past the magic 272 mark. Out of these, the Key state which is likely to make the most impact to this 3rd front fortunes as well as the fortune of NDA is Uttar Pradesh which sends maximum 80 MP’s to parliament. After getting drubbing in 2014 LS polls and later in 2017 State elections, regional heavy weights joined hand to put a formidable counter to Modi-Yogi pair in UP as their joint total exceeds the BJP votes in both last elections in many constituencies. NDA seems mentally prepared to lose from its historic 73 seats in 2014 in the state, the only thing nobody can ascertain before 23rd May is the extent of this loss – This along with the gains BJP can make in Bengal and Orrisa will decide the fate of next Government.

NDA has tried to intervene multiple threads to woo voters this time and pacify the unhappy ones. It has again projected Modi as Messiah of honesty, integrity and strong leader country can bank on. Alongside they have run parallel themes to consolidate their supporters through Hindutva, National security (Balakot – which found maximum mention in entire campaign), foreign policy success and development initiatives in terms of last mile delivery of their schemes – namely Ujjala (Gas for women), Swatch Bharat, Ayush Bharat (Healthcare scheme launched), direct transfer to farmers, bank accounts for poor, huge boost in Infrastructure – It has really touched the lives of Indians in one way or the other. To Modi’s credit, he has managed to run a fairly clean Government, much better than the UPA’s 2009-14 rule especially on corruption and inflation, which were key in the rout of the UPA in 2014. This coupled with its development initiatives has helped it convert anti-incumbency into a pro-incumbency to a very large extent. On the flip side, Unemployment, healthcare, and rural farmers distress were areas where it is getting negative feedback from many quarters – Only if opposition could focus more sharply on these rather than going with “Chowkidar Chor Hai” on Rafale, which due to lack of facts did not resonate with the masses and backfired in terms of “Main Bhi Chowkidar” campaign led by Modi from the forefront.

Kautilya had written if opposition gangs up against the ruler, be assured he is an honest one! This time opposition seems hell bent to remove Modi – hardly giving a credible Alternate. Only 23rd May will tell if our Chowkidar gets another term to build on the base he has prepared to make India a stronger developed nation or if the Chowkidar is changed for being a “Jumlebaaz”. But personally having interactions with fellow countrymen in last 6 months and closely monitoring public reactions through various platforms in last 3 months post Balakot, one should not be surprised if we have not yet picked the ground level support in favour of Modi – Which could translate into a similar or even a better outcome for NDA as compared to their performance in 2014. If that was the case, hope Modi 2.0 will be even better for our nation.

We will get our answer soon, but hope the results bring the best contender to Delhi and may God give him the strength to run our country more efficiently and make it a global superpower. Jai Hind!