Exit polls are out. Though Anti incumbency seems to be the flavor of the season like most of the times, exit polls indicate that only UP will have a clear mandate against the ruling BSP. Punjab & Uttaranchal seem to be a close fight where the ruling Govt’s might be presenting tough time to opposition. Our politicians being politicians are rubbishing the bad news & looking in sync with the good ones! Political reactions on these have very short shelf life as the verdict would be out in a day. A quick look at what the exit polls look to suggest:
UP : SP was expected to be the single largest party even before the polls were declared. But whether it will be able to get the magic figure of 202 on its own is something not many people were ready to believe. Exit polls also indicate that it might not get a simple majority, but it may be very close to the target and in the battle of youth, Akhilesh might have benefitted the most from anti incumbency against Mayawati regime. The BSP’s loss seems to be divided between the other three contenders, BJP & Congress being gainers behind the maximum gain by SP. Unless SP gets the magic figure on its own, we may see the political permutations & combinations come into play along with uncertainty all across as was the case before 2007 landslide in favor of BSP.
Uttarkhand : BJP was expected to be voted out before the polls, thanks to the anti incumbency wave. But the exit polls are indicating a very close fight between BJP & Congress. Seems “Khanduri Hai Zaruri” may have saved BJP from a clear cut ouster.
Punjab : This Northern state has been known for its anti incumbency wave, which had Congress hopeful of ousting SAD-BJP combine. But the exit polls suggest it to be a neck to neck fight where either side may be just managing to cross the winning line.
Goa : BJP would get the benefit of anti incumbency here and might be voted to power against Congress.
Manipur : Congress seems to be the single largest party here, though may not get simple majority.
Though these are only indications and political parties having mixed reactions to these, but the cat seems to be on the run amongst the pigeons! Though the results will have political fall outs, it is UP which is going to be the most important of the lot. The rankings were more or less clear before the polls, but it would be the exact number of seats different parties get which would set the tone for the 2014 general elections. The stakes are high for everyone : Be it Mayawati who is all set to lose the power, Akhilesh Yadav’s campaign to get back the power for his father, be it Uma Bharati trying to get the BJP back on track in the state or the hard work being put in by Rahul Gandhi in the last 5 years. Congress seems to be planning to protect Rahul incase results are not favorable. Digvijay feels that exit polls are rubbish and party will get over 125 seats & is ready to take the blame if they lose. Beni Prasad feels Maya would be a better ally than the SP, but party feels this is his personal stand. Rahul himself is believed to have met the senior editors few days back explaining them that only number of seats should not be the only criteria to measure success as they were coming from 22 seats with a vote share of only 8% in 2007. It is understood that he felt that even if party is able to double its vote share this time, it would be a descent success. But analysts feel this may be only damage control & “expectation management to redefine success” by changing the goal post incase ball goes in a different direction!!
Every party is waiting with fingers crossed for the R-Day. These results are an important moment in the way political landscape gets defined for next few years. As CEC Mr. Quraishi says, the election commission has completed its task of getting the elections conducted & done it pretty well. Now it is time for public’s verdict to be out & politics to take over the central stage. Nobody loses till the final verdict is out, so there is hope for everyone till tomorrow. With only a day to go, we all are also eagerly waiting to see this musical chair just like the players who will actually play it: May the best one win!!
