The public memory is short lived & the real politics starts only once their memory ends!
Flashback Apr 2011: The ruling Govt got the first taste of public ire against the corruption under the Anna Hazare led Civil Society. & If this trailer was appreciated, then the actual film turned out to be an even roaring success in August’11 with Anna sitting on fast for nearly a fortnight. The ruling Govt. and the Congress leaders were running for shelter and grasping for breadth being total clueless as to what needs to be done. Even after the arrest of Mr. Kalmadi & Mr. Raja for their alleged role in CWG & the 2g scams respectively, the temperatures on the streets were as high as those in the TV news debates where the Congress spokesperson were running out of words defending Govt position. The question at that time was not how many seats will the Congress win in UP. The question being asked was if the Govt will be able to hold its central rule or we may see the midterm polls if the ire of the masses was any indication. Opposition was going for the kill, public was on roads protesting against the ruling Govt for the graft which was hurting them every day.
Cut to the Polls in Feb/Mar 2012. In a span of some 6months, the tables have turned. & not just turned, they have actually been replaced. The Congress has suddenly realized that they are in an advantageous situation and trying to reap benefits of anti-incumbency in 3 of the 5 states going to polls & fighting to retain power in the other 2. Suddenly they have realized that they are in commanding position in Punjab, Uttaranchal & all set to gain along with other opposition parties in state in the all important UP. Nobody remembers the Aug of last year when Congress was almost crumbling to maintain its central rule, not to talk about the upcoming state elections. The Jan Lokpal fever was all across and even the most fluent of the party’s spokesperson were at loss of words, eating back most of what they use to say. Things started to get back on track once Mrs Sonia Gandhi came back from her treatment abroad. They started getting their act together, knowing what opposition was up to and how Civil society needs to be handled. Opposition parties were themselves unsure as to how to get political mileage out of the entire episode as they did not seem totally comfortable with the Jan Lokpal themselves, nor were they in any position to agree with the Govt’s version. Finally politics prevailed on the Lokpal as the bill seemed to go in the cold storage in the dying moments of the Winter session. If there was a nail to be hit in the coffin, it came in form of the failure of Anna’s Jail bharo abhiyaan at Mumbai in Dec, which saved the political brass from the blushes and ruling UPA from any further disaster!
The Mumbai disaster of Anna’s fast was the turning point for the Congress led UPA. It saved them from the “nuclear Lokpal” & gave them the strength to go back in the state polls attacking the opposition for not allowing the Lokpal to be passed and “not serious” about checking graft. Rahul Gandhi had been working hard for over 5 years now in UP, but even his army had developed a cold feet in wake of Civil society storm. But the BJP led NDA just could not sustain the offensive and momentum against their arch rivals, it probably needs better media managers, better strategists, more fire power to push things harder & probably stronger leaders. After losing the plot, it has reached a stage where it is battling anti incumbency and a serious threat to be voted out in 2 states. In UP, where it could have been the front runner against the anti-incumbent BSP, criminal rule of SP & rootless Congress; reports suggest it to be struggling the most. In 6 months flat, it has lost the golden opportunity the Anna storm had presented to it. Even before the results come out, at least it has yet again lost politically. Seems even it needs a “Sonia” to strongly get them against one unified umbrella, to propel their prospects. Is Modi the option, probably the time would have the best answer.
As for the Congress, it seems it has what it takes to rule. Irrespective of the results, it has managed to get over the macro issues of Corruption, Price rise etc to go out aggressively in these polls. It has started laying plans for the next wave of reaching out to masses after MNREGA, if Sonia’s pushing the Food security bill is any indication. It has set its eyes on the finals of 2014, the 2012 being an all important semi-finals it needs to win. Unless the results go in the opposite direction all together, which looks unlikely; one can see the party coming out smiling. But knowing what happened last summer, if it still comes out smiling this time, there would be no reason, not to believe it can dream of going laughing to the parliament in the summer of 2014! But then politics is all about uncertainty, pundits & predictions all can go wrong. Opposition still has hope till the verdict is out: 6th March will present the answer to all!
