“Iss Baar lagta hai Modi nahi Ruk Payega”… There was a silence for around 20 seconds. I paused while moving ahead to hear the response of the other person as sometimes the road side discussions provide answers to the most complex questions of the Indian politics. “Par usko Rukna chahiye bhi nahi, iss baar Desh ko uski Zarurat hai”… There was no rhetoric, no jingoism and no greed, but both these statements covered in totality the plethora of feelings running across the masses this time outlining the crux and baseline of the biggest festival of Indian Democracy which is currently on.
This election seems different on several counts than what we may have ever seen before. With communication medium exploding like never before, we may not have seen this earlier in terms of coverage and eye for detail. 24 Hour news channels, print media, radio stations, social media and the internet have made it more special, more intensely fought battle.
The most elections earlier have been centered on the ruling Govt, with most opposition parties ganging against the incumbent; but this election sees a peculiar trend where the ruling front is almost falling over every party requesting them to stop a “Person”. These elections have become a referendum on this “person”. The 2014 polls have boiled down to either you are with him or against him and the person in question is the BJP’s PM candidate Narendra Damodardas Modi. Some see him as a mass leader with modest background of a tea seller; being a progressive visionary with excellent execution skills. Then there are others who see him as an authoritarian divisive leader who is a threat to the secular fabric of this nation. The latter feel that Minorities would not be comfortable under such a leader and this has already started a process of minority consolidation against BJP, which has in turn started process of counter consolidation in many areas thus making election polarized taking the development talk in the background. But you may like him or hate him, the fact of 2014 is you just cannot ignore him. And to be fair to him, you also need to give him credit for the aggressive in your face campaign which has highlighted the passion with which he chases any set targets. Addressing around 200 rallies after being anointed PM candidate in over 6 months, he has taken the fight to the opposition camp.
The ground reality seems to suggest that the people especially youth have bought this strong decisiveness, the development model and the hope which he seems to be selling. Thus a big section of electorate which has never voted for BJP is likely to vote for Modi this time around.
Yes, the biggest win for him this time has been that he has been able to sell “HOPE”, these are four words which have the ability to raise the morale of Individuals, economies, the societies and even the Nations.
Another interesting aspect which has popped up is the 2 tides which the main political formulations are trying to propagate. On one hand UPA is trying its level best to make this a “Secular versus Communal” battle so that discussion is not just centered on the issues coming out of anti-incumbency. However those very people they are terming as communal are going hammer and tongs against the UPA on the issues of Development, governance, corruption, economic slowdown & price rise which are hurting the people at large. This has even divided the intellects, with some feeling a threat to "secularism" being the top threat, while others feel this threat has not taken country anywhere and this is an election for real issues and one who can address it is best suited to lead the nation.
After Narendra Modi won his 2012 Gujarat Assembly elections, he had set his eyes for a bigger role of serving the nation. But there were 4 set of challenges which were to be addressed in his journey to lead this great nation. The first one was being accepted with in his own party as the PM candidate. After long and public party drama late last year, he finally managed to overcome internal dissent of seniors to become the face of the party. It was followed by the challenge of being the untouchable for the allies as his anointment saw JD(U) famously moving out of the NDA. But Mr. Modi managed to create a national mood in his favor which prompted allies like LJP, TDP, MDMK. PMK & DMDK to forge pre-poll alliances with the saffron party helping him win the second battle. The third and the foremost challenge is winning the elections for his party helping them return in power after being in opposition for 10 long years. If opinion polls are to be believed, he seems to be on his way for achieving this with trends suggesting BJP crossing 200 mark on its own with NDA closing in on the 250 seats mark with highest voting percentage for it ever. But we need to wait for 16th May to have a clear answer if it is a Modi Wave/factor (as you want to term it) or was it simply the media hype. But one factor which nobody is currently even talking is what if he gets chance to lead the nation after polls.
The fourth & biggest challenge for Namo will be the one to meet the huge expectations of the masses who may be buying his idea of governance & development considering him to come up with a magic wand for all their woes. Thus the margin of error for him would be very less post victory with opposition waiting to pounce on even the smallest error which is bound to exist and people expecting him to correct everything in no time.
As for Congress, the biggest loss for it is losing the perception battle ahead of polls. The eye popping scams, inflation, security concerns, economic downturn and inability of its top leadership to tackle the aggressive opposition’s rising star has made them lose the battle even before the first ballot was polled. With demoralized cadre and strong public mood against it, they are all set for the poorest showing in the history of free India. Many feel they were not able to articulate whatever good work was done during their tenure and the baggage of UPA 2 was too heavy for their shoulders. Now it seems to be only a question of the extent of loss which needs to be ascertained. As the opinion polls are suggesting, one would be surprised if the national party is able to reach 3 figures in 2014. One thing which they have done right is not to name Rahul Gandhi as PM candidate even if he is the face of the party.
Seeing the trend against it, not pitting him officially against the Modi seems thoughtful strategy as Politics is not about being a martyr, it is about staying alive to win another day. With around a quarter of population still backing them in opinion polls, the party and its leader still have that mass appeal to make a comeback in future, not probably in 2014.
The regional players were as excited as the NDA to gain from the anti-incumbency against the UPA. But the challenge faced by them is the lack of a binding vision and cohesive force which could make their national ambitions sustain. For every SP, there is a BSP, for every Left, there is a TMC & for every DMK, there is an AIADMK which makes it almost impossible to work out a formulation where Govt could be formed at the Centre.
But they still have hope, right from Mulayam to Didi to Amma to Nitish; everyone still has that faint hope that maybe, just maybe each one of them may land up at 7 RCR after the 16th May!! With a desperate Congress and Left, you never know if the numbers may again prompt and help stacking up a “Secular” front post results just like shaky Deve Gowda Govt in 90’s. But even otherwise, these others are still likely to be critical in the next Govt formation unless and until NDA sweeps with majority.
And what about the latest kid on the political block?? One may have heard that everything which goes up comes down and the speed at which it goes up is directly proportional to its speed of decline. Maybe the AAP is following the rule. They stole the show in Dec last year with unexpected results in Delhi. But rather than slowly building on that success, and creating a massive growth path for them, they decided to go for a flash in the pan spreading too fast and too thin. Though one would not like to write them off, but their rhetoric and dramatic 49 day stint in Delhi may not have helped their cause which was initially based on a strong idea and stronger popular sentiment. It seems the Kejriwal led party may have lost the plot for at least for the current Lok Sabha polls and it would be surprising if they cross the double digit mark nationally which in turn would give its leaders an important message to rethink their strategy, ideology and growth road map.
The high voter turnout will certainly point out the eagerness of the public to elect their next Govt which would help them address their Needs, Aspirations and Dreams; though not exactly in the same order for all… As an Indian, without any bias; I would certainly hope that every countryman uses the right to Vote judiciously to give a strong, stable and progressive Govt which works for us and keeps India First. Get up my countrymen and use the political ink to write your, your family’s and your country’s bright future. As for which way the wind will stop, we may just need to wait for another month. On 16th May 2014, we will have the answer to “ABKI BAAR, KISKI SARKAAR”!! Jai Hind.
