6th March, 2012 : (Polls Part 2 : The Music of Exit Polls)

Exit polls are out. Though Anti incumbency seems to be the flavor of the season like most of the times, exit polls indicate that only UP will have a clear mandate against the ruling BSP. Punjab & Uttaranchal seem to be a close fight where the ruling Govt’s might be presenting tough time to opposition. Our politicians being politicians are rubbishing the bad news & looking in sync with the good ones! Political reactions on these have very short shelf life as the verdict would be out in a day. A quick look at what the exit polls look to suggest:
UP : SP was expected to be the single largest party even before the polls were declared. But whether it will be able to get the magic figure of 202 on its own is something not many people were ready to believe. Exit polls also indicate that it might not get a simple majority, but it may be very close to the target and in the battle of youth, Akhilesh might have benefitted the most from anti incumbency against Mayawati regime. The BSP’s loss seems to be divided between the other three contenders, BJP & Congress being gainers behind the maximum gain by SP. Unless SP gets the magic figure on its own, we may see the political permutations & combinations come into play along with uncertainty all across as was the case before 2007 landslide in favor of BSP.
Uttarkhand : BJP was expected to be voted out before the polls, thanks to the anti incumbency wave. But the exit polls are indicating a very close fight between BJP & Congress. Seems “Khanduri Hai Zaruri” may have saved BJP from a clear cut ouster.
Punjab : This Northern state has been known for its anti incumbency wave, which had Congress hopeful of ousting SAD-BJP combine. But the exit polls suggest it to be a neck to neck fight where either side may be just managing to cross the winning line.
Goa : BJP would get the benefit of anti incumbency here and might be voted to power against Congress.
Manipur : Congress seems to be the single largest party here, though may not get simple majority.

Though these are only indications and political parties having mixed reactions to these, but the cat seems to be on the run amongst the pigeons! Though the results will have political fall outs, it is UP which is going to be the most important of the lot. The rankings were more or less clear before the polls, but it would be the exact number of seats different parties get which would set the tone for the 2014 general elections. The stakes are high for everyone : Be it Mayawati who is all set to lose the power, Akhilesh Yadav’s campaign to get back the power for his father, be it Uma Bharati trying to get the BJP back on track in the state or the hard work being put in by Rahul Gandhi in the last 5 years. Congress seems to be planning to protect Rahul incase results are not favorable. Digvijay feels that exit polls are rubbish and party will get over 125 seats & is ready to take the blame if they lose. Beni Prasad feels Maya would be a better ally than the SP, but party feels this is his personal stand. Rahul himself is believed to have met the senior editors few days back explaining them that only number of seats should not be the only criteria to measure success as they were coming from 22 seats with a vote share of only 8% in 2007. It is understood that he felt that even if party is able to double its vote share this time, it would be a descent success. But analysts feel this may be only damage control & “expectation management to redefine success” by changing the goal post incase ball goes in a different direction!!

Every party is waiting with fingers crossed for the R-Day. These results are an important moment in the way political landscape gets defined for next few years. As CEC Mr. Quraishi says, the election commission has completed its task of getting the elections conducted & done it pretty well. Now it is time for public’s verdict to be out & politics to take over the central stage. Nobody loses till the final verdict is out, so there is hope for everyone till tomorrow. With only a day to go, we all are also eagerly waiting to see this musical chair just like the players who will actually play it: May the best one win!!

6th March, 2012 (Polls Part 1: Congress- From the back to the front foot!)

The public memory is short lived & the real politics starts only once their memory ends!


Flashback Apr 2011: The ruling Govt got the first taste of public ire against the corruption under the Anna Hazare led Civil Society. & If this trailer was appreciated, then the actual film turned out to be an even roaring success in August’11 with Anna sitting on fast for nearly a fortnight. The ruling Govt. and the Congress leaders were running for shelter and grasping for breadth being total clueless as to what needs to be done. Even after the arrest of Mr. Kalmadi & Mr. Raja for their alleged role in CWG & the 2g scams respectively, the temperatures on the streets were as high as those in the TV news debates where the Congress spokesperson were running out of words defending Govt position. The question at that time was not how many seats will the Congress win in UP. The question being asked was if the Govt will be able to hold its central rule or we may see the midterm polls if the ire of the masses was any indication. Opposition was going for the kill, public was on roads protesting against the ruling Govt for the graft which was hurting them every day.

Cut to the Polls in Feb/Mar 2012. In a span of some 6months, the tables have turned. & not just turned, they have actually been replaced. The Congress has suddenly realized that they are in an advantageous situation and trying to reap benefits of anti-incumbency in 3 of the 5 states going to polls & fighting to retain power in the other 2. Suddenly they have realized that they are in commanding position in Punjab, Uttaranchal & all set to gain along with other opposition parties in state in the all important UP. Nobody remembers the Aug of last year when Congress was almost crumbling to maintain its central rule, not to talk about the upcoming state elections. The Jan Lokpal fever was all across and even the most fluent of the party’s spokesperson were at loss of words, eating back most of what they use to say. Things started to get back on track once Mrs Sonia Gandhi came back from her treatment abroad. They started getting their act together, knowing what opposition was up to and how Civil society needs to be handled. Opposition parties were themselves unsure as to how to get political mileage out of the entire episode as they did not seem totally comfortable with the Jan Lokpal themselves, nor were they in any position to agree with the Govt’s version. Finally politics prevailed on the Lokpal as the bill seemed to go in the cold storage in the dying moments of the Winter session. If there was a nail to be hit in the coffin, it came in form of the failure of Anna’s Jail bharo abhiyaan at Mumbai in Dec, which saved the political brass from the blushes and ruling UPA from any further disaster!

The Mumbai disaster of Anna’s fast was the turning point for the Congress led UPA. It saved them from the “nuclear Lokpal” & gave them the strength to go back in the state polls attacking the opposition for not allowing the Lokpal to be passed and “not serious” about checking graft. Rahul Gandhi had been working hard for over 5 years now in UP, but even his army had developed a cold feet in wake of Civil society storm. But the BJP led NDA just could not sustain the offensive and momentum against their arch rivals, it probably needs better media managers, better strategists, more fire power to push things harder & probably stronger leaders. After losing the plot, it has reached a stage where it is battling anti incumbency and a serious threat to be voted out in 2 states. In UP, where it could have been the front runner against the anti-incumbent BSP, criminal rule of SP & rootless Congress; reports suggest it to be struggling the most. In 6 months flat, it has lost the golden opportunity the Anna storm had presented to it. Even before the results come out, at least it has yet again lost politically. Seems even it needs a “Sonia” to strongly get them against one unified umbrella, to propel their prospects. Is Modi the option, probably the time would have the best answer.

As for the Congress, it seems it has what it takes to rule. Irrespective of the results, it has managed to get over the macro issues of Corruption, Price rise etc to go out aggressively in these polls. It has started laying plans for the next wave of reaching out to masses after MNREGA, if Sonia’s pushing the Food security bill is any indication. It has set its eyes on the finals of 2014, the 2012 being an all important semi-finals it needs to win. Unless the results go in the opposite direction all together, which looks unlikely; one can see the party coming out smiling. But knowing what happened last summer, if it still comes out smiling this time, there would be no reason, not to believe it can dream of going laughing to the parliament in the summer of 2014! But then politics is all about uncertainty, pundits & predictions all can go wrong. Opposition still has hope till the verdict is out: 6th March will present the answer to all!

Consistent in being Inconsistent…

So after a couple of good games, we again lost badly today to Australia!
A dear friend asked me some time back as to why I had not written about Indian Cricket. When I thought about it, even I realized that like most Indians, I have been following the game for as long as I can remember. So what makes it difficult to write about the game and our team? The biggest reason which I could think was the unpredictability with which they perform, they can make the biggest experts of the game eat their words with every performance of their. If Mr. Gavaskar says something good about them, in the very next 2 games they can ensure he might have to hide his write up below his pillow or delete his blog. If Mr. Shastri says something bad about them, it is likely that they may perform so outstandingly in next outings that the general public will try and get an apology from the gentleman for bashing the God’s!

If we closely observe our boys in blue in the last decade or so, it would be imperative that we would realize that there have been positive strides in terms of performance & passion to win. The energy levels and commitment was there even with earlier teams, but with newer formats and shorter versions gaining more significance, the team has moved well in last decade and half to adapt to the need of the hour. For getting to be the top team in formats of the game, one needs an able team and also have the commitment, intent & passion to play to the top of their caliber. We did see the veterans like Tendulkar, Ganguly, Dravid & Sehwag being ably supported by the youth brigade of Yuvraj, Rohit, Virat, Pathan led by Dhoni. Results have been clearly visible & indicative. Winning world cup after 28 long years was certainly not the fluke but an amalgamation of good work being done over a period of time. Though they have always been in a comfort zone when they are at home, the performances have always been better when they play in sub-continent as compared to those abroad.

Irrespective of the good and bad we have seen, this team has travelled, and raised the bar. With Ganguly retiring few years back & Dravid & Laxman being in line; it is an important phase in the game for country. The hope is transition would be smooth & one which would carry the game to the next level from where the veterans have taken it. The future would be bright when able Sharma’s, Kohli’s & Pathan’s step up in the shoes to deliver the goods. But one thing which has been consistent in the entire journey till date has been their inconsistency in performance. They change track faster than the weather in the mountains. & with their performance, even the public mood & emotions keeps changing for our team. The pendulum swings in tandem. We are an emotional bunch of people, we tend to make our cricketers God when they win. But as soon as they lose, we tend to burn their effigies & demand their sacking. If the current test series against Australia made every critic go ballistic against the team, the public wanted to sack almost everyone in the team! Then suddenly a couple of wins in one day suddenly made us think that even if we are having trouble in Test matches abroad, we are still one of the best one day units. The supporters started praising the team, its captain. But as things started going well, we have a collapse as in today’s match against Australia. So every good win is followed by a debacle, not allowing you to make up your mind if they are good or bad, if you love them or hate them! They have made it a habit to surprise us, the BCCI, the commentators & it would be not be unfair to say they even Surprise themselves!! & yes, one of the other certain traits which has come out in this series yet again is “The last over syndrome” (Remember http://rochakvig.blogspot.in/2010/09/last-over-syndrome.html ). Dhoni was fortunate to get one win in the last over and the other one went in for a tie. But then it is a part of our blood!

So one can safely say that times have changed, the formats might have changed, and even the team members have changed. But if something has not changed over decades, it is the unpredictability of our team. Cricket is more than just a game in this country of Billion plus. It is entertainment, it is staple food for media, it is a religion, it is a part of our daily lives. & then why just blame the men in blue? Just like our otherwise inconsistent lives, politicians, film-stars, the general public; even cricket is not an exception. If there is one thing we all collectively believe and maintain is our ability to be “Consistent in being Inconsistent”!!

The Day India votes for Development…

Short sightedness is sometimes worst than being not able to see, as it takes away the vision, the bright things which could have been a part of our future. But we mostly tend to be short sighted; after all, we are humane.
Elections are again around the corner & we can see something all across the spectrum: Promises, Promises & more Promises! & We are voters who are humane. We get carried away when someone from our caste is standing from our constituency, irrespective of whether we will ever see him before the next elections. We get influenced if a party promises some extra quota for our community, irrespective of whether they will actually yield benefits on the ground. Then we at times get so frustrated for being promised and then ignored that we decide not to vote for anybody. But then if we need to vote again, we would prefer to vote for candidate who is from our religion and the party which promises our community the moon, even if they have been doing it for the past 5 terms! We don’t care if they are corrupt and criminals as long as they are from same caste.

It is this tendency which has been exploited by various parties to keep us engaged for over six decades now. It has been now 65 years to be precise. Different parties have ruled, some at centre, some at states. The quota has been prevalent for the under privileged sections. Endless promises have been made to the minorities by different parties. Dreams have been sold to the majority masses as well to create a paradise for them on earth. But do we see the masses having got benefit of all which was planned and promised to them. I am sure irrespective of our background & political affiliations; we all would be unanimous in our response to this query. Because if the backward sections had derived the benefits of these schemes, today they would have been at par with the advanced sections in society and we would have been discussing to phase out the quota politics rather than sustaining/increasing those numbers. The political Diaspora is well versed with this fact. It is this primary reason that instead of showcasing their development efforts in their report card, they focus on getting the “appropriate” candidate who the major chunk of constituency would relate to and then show them same old wine of promises in a new bottle. The problem is the ones who talk about development; even they do their caste calculations & constituency profiling to get on the winning side. But the bigger problem is; that it actually works!

Though the picture is not totally grim, as in the last decade we have some definite examples where masses have rewarded the development efforts of our leaders. Sheila Dixit was voted back to power for the third time in 2008, thanks to the development efforts she has made to create a Delhi which seems almost a model state as compared to its peers. Narendra Modi would wish if he could erase the dark pages in Gujarat’s history witnessed around a decade back which is used by opposition to run him down. Because apart from it, he has written such a glorious development chapter for the state that he was not only voted back in 2007 but also has been lately hinted being the party’s nominee for the PM’s post at centre. Then the most recent has been the case of the politician who has turned around the fate of India’s one of the most backward state. The state in question is Bihar and the leader being referred is Nitish Kumar. He has redefined the definition of development in the state of Bihar known to vote only for the caste, promises & stage drama! But the thumping victory for Nitish in last year’s polls has highlighted a very important aspect of Indian democracy: That we also vote for Development and if we get people who work for us, we would go all out to extend our support to them without getting into the dream world of promises. Anti-incumbency is a reflection of poor performance, but then the ruling party is aware & hopeful while moving out that it will again get a chance next time as the opposition gaining power will not be able to deliver on bloated promises. Hence it starts preparing for better & bigger promises with better target strategy in terms of profiling of masses for the next elections! Thus non-performance gives a chance to all rather than better performance!

We all would collectively pray for a day when we would see a minority voter choosing the Saffron candidate who has transformed his constituency for a better life for his family. We would be glad to see the right wing hardliner family voting for a non Saffron government which has worked wonders for their state, their constituency, their neighborhood. Let us all country men get together and start exercising our voting rights more judiciously. Let us promise ourselves; not voting is not the way out. We need to vote & make our vote count. Aam aadmi needs to vote for the future of the Aam aadmi. Lets get our message straight to our leaders: kindly PERFORM! Let us all “Humane” get over the politics of caste & creed and start voting for the politics of Development to set the precedence for our leaders to work for us. Probably our future would be brighter, one where leaders would compete to outdo each other for developing our society, our NATION. Jai Hind!

Its aLL about Marketing- (Part2 : When Politicians turn Marketing Guru's...)

“Utho, Jaago, Badlo” , “Umeed ki Cylce”, “Chad vipaksh ki chhati par, Mohar laga haathi par”

No we are not murmuring any titles of Bollywood potboilers. We are getting these for you from one of the most anticipated & important political battlefield: UP Elections 2012. This is a battle every political party & observer is closely watching expecting one of the closest & fiercest contests in recent times. In addition to the various dynamics of caste, religion & political imaging & posturing, this fight will be remembered for the Marketing carried out by various leaders to project why they deserve to get the priced chair at Lucknow. Whether it is a “Jai Ho” or an “India against Corruption”, marketing has become a key to promote political brands & ideologies and now the communication programmes undertaken are as extensive as marketing wars between top cola brands to outshine each other.


If you pull out the newspapers for recent past, you would notice that a sizeable chunk would be covered by the advertisements/news stories related to political outfits projecting the development programmes they have covered in the interest of the nation (Though readers generally wonder if so much effort was actually made for real development!!). It is not just the central government which is boasting about its efforts now; state Govts are equally active in getting their share of limelight. Thus you would find a Mayawati competing with the star leaders Rahul Gandhi & Narendra Modi having full pages in leading dailies highlighting the achievements of the BSP Govt in last 5 yrs of their rule in UP. Her 3-4 minute documentary on the state Govt’s success on channels seems a challenge which even Birla’s & Tata’s would not be keen to accept. Behenji’s Delhi counterpart Sheila Dixit is not far behind in addressing the different media to share her “success stories”.


Even social groups like Anna Hazare’s civil society seek marketing as a tool to take their cause to the heart of the masses. Irrespective of the intentions & manner of their forcing government to take affirmative action against corruption, the success of Team Anna’s movement was in the well planned and executed marketing blitzkrieg by its team which used the media machinery in the best possible manner to give the political brass a run for their money & insomnia in form of “Jan Lokpal”.


There are few clear reasons for this trend which form a vicious circle of sorts. Firstly it is important to take your promises & ideologies to the masses in this hi-tech age of ever expanding media. There are leaders whose mission is to wrestle power from the clutches of “corrupt, ill-governed & ruthless regimes”. For that they have a vision which is aptly translated into a mission by advisers. But even they realize that without marketing blitzkrieg they will not be able to realize this mission.

Thus whether it is Civil society against the ruling Congress at Centre or the Congress against ruling BSP in UP; everyone tries using this tool effectively. Not surprisingly Congress has hired as many as three agencies: Percept, Crayon & JWT to help them with their Mission 2012 in UP to nurture their heir apparent Rahul G’s dream. Even parties like Samajwadi party who used to be against concept of computers are fully supporting the need to use technology & marketing plans to project their “Umeed ki cycle” overtaking the elephant. You may have excellent development plans on paper, but is very important to sell those to the electorate to get a mandate to implement them.



Then the story doesn’t end there. Incase chosen to power, it becomes equally important to let the electorate know what you have done for them, or at least have “intended” because “actually doing” is pretty difficult most of the times! It is very important to tom-tom about the implementation of the achievements to tell masses how right they were in getting you to power! Whether it is Sheila, Narendra Modi or Mayawati, all are well versed with it.

As a constructive opposition, for attacking the Govt and broadcasting their scams, their ill-deeds & taints, media campaigns are a must or else the entire 2g scam would have died a natural death without any sounds reaching the masses. Hence it equally important to market Advani ji’s Rath yatra against corruption! On the other hand as the defense mechanism, the same marketing provides a tool to the state to defend self from the supposed “wrong doings or the debacles” the mischievous opposition has attributed it with! The beauty of your campaigns is in its flexibility to alter as per the changing circumstances, changing opposition stances & changing public opinions, the faster it adapts to these, healthier would your political standing be.


Yes if there is one thing which remains constant in all these: Politics remain at the heart of all such marketing advents. After all it is the politicians & social leaders who are at the helm of such media circus strategizing how every word can be turned into an award in their kitty and a sword for the opponents! General public just wonders: How if these leaders had actually planned & executed the development plans as good as their marketing ones :) But then the politicians would complain that even when they carry out development, they will still need to market & highlight it or else you will again end up not voting for them :) :)



“ Takaluf uthane se zyada, Takaluf dikhana zaruri hai

Kuch karei na karei hum, Tumse vaada karna majboori hai.

Hakumat ki yeh kahani azab hai, Isme har kirdaar ki jagah ghazab hai

Har labz mei dava aur zeher saath hai, Kahi kamal, Kahi haathi to Kahi haath hai! “

It’s aLL About Marketing… (Part 1 : Movie Marketing)

The Story of First Weekend:

If one takes out the collections of some of big hits of 80’s, one would be surprised to note they had collected less than what many movies are collecting in first day of their release today. Though it is worth noting that making these comparisons is unjust as the inflation has taken a toll during these decades and the ticket prices and the numbers of screens today are much higher from that era. But another interesting aspect is that films during that period used to collect this amount over a long period of time, celebrating silver jubilee and golden jubilees during their run. Today the much larger collections are witnessed over a much shorter period of time and even biggest blockbusters today don’t need to (even intend to!) eye a silver jubilee if not more.

The Box office has become huge & so have the efforts to rake in moolah in shortest possible time. Today a shelf life of the film ranges from a week to month, some being very lucky to survive a couple. And thus the concept of “Bumper Opening” has become significant. This makes marketing guys relevant, having a task clearly cut out for them. The film marketing has suddenly become as important as making a movie if not more. The content and quality come more into play from the first Monday, but the weekend is all dependent upon the hype which has been generated by the stars and makers thanks to the positive/negative publicity generated before the release. Earlier marketing would mean a good Premiere of the film with few interviews, but today it is about creative hype across the media spectrum sustained over a period of time. Now even superstars like Shah Rukh Khan realize this importance and go on a marketing blitzkrieg with every release. The results are evident: Ra One has collected a humongous 80.5 Crore on an extended 5 day weekend and collapsing to a total of 115 Cr net lifetime from India (Hindi versions). Similarly Bodyguard collected a thundering 85 crore in its 5 days weekend against a total lifetime of 140 Crs from India. Irrespective of the feedback/content, films are clocking over half its lifetime business in the first weekend alone.

This brings us to a very important aspect: Today weekend is all about Right Date + Appropriate Genre + High Print + High Marketing & Huge Hype which translates into Bumper opening. This wins more than half the battle for the makers. The only rest left is to convince the people through good reviews/paid PR through media that film is good, this gets their shelf life enhanced with greater lifetime for their product. Yes, movies are not only about creative satisfaction for most today, its about a highly entertaining product which is bombarded on the paying public for significant ROI!! You would thereby find big stars like Aamir & SRK going hammer & tongs using their creative thoughts publicising their flicks. Even makers like Karan Johar, Sajid Nadiawala & Farah Khan know this bitter fact "Jo Dikhta hai, Vo Bikta hai".

With increasing channels and exploding media including social networking, the game is simple. From the day of ideation, the marketing shoes need to be ON :)
Generate HYPE to get max. public in to see your movie once it opens and then plant desired PR to get other potential audience making them believe the flick is worth watching!! The 3 M is clear: Manufacture Movies & Market them like hell, I mean well :)

Bodyguard, Rockstar, Desi Boyz : Short Synopsis!

Bodyguard:
Every Star has a time when their good films don’t work & then there are times when even the average ones ROCK! Salman seems to be having that dream run where anything he touches would turn Gold, or probably Diamond!! The film has been made to target the masses showing their star in the manner they Love to see him, and results are for all to see. Sallu bhai is HUGE!! Whether you are “Ready” or not, Salman is “Dabangg”, he is “Bodyguard”, seems currently he can be anything he wishes to be. Kareena also looks good in the movie. An Eid release and produced by Salman’s sister & brother in law, you don’t need to know anything more! 

Rockstar:
There are paintings, some of which convey a message. Then there are others which are abstract, you need to derive inferences, without being given one. This one is an Imtiaz Ali abstract, some may love it some may hate but you will have to use grey matter for this heavy stuff. It’s something different, something fresh, and something youth will relate more than their parents : "Rebellious, uncertain & unclear" are their traits which get highlighted. One of the best performances from Ranbir, establishing him further as an “Actor” with “Starpower”. He has put in his heart & soul in this one reflecting pain from his eyes & importantly it gets reflected in power backed role. Nargis looks fine and gets a debut many would look forward to. Rahman seems to be back with this effort, enhancing the story telling by notches. Every film maker has his style stamp, you would see Imtiaz’s trademark on this, the good or bad you will need to figure out!!

Desi Boyz:
Fresh treatment by debutant director Rohit Dhawan. Narrative is good, however content could have been better. It is a descent one time watch but probably the basic idea may not have too many followers. But these days even “Fine/OK” films work well @ Box office if promoted aggressively (Did I hear Ra1??). This one could certainly have been pushed better for a bigger opening. Deepika, John & Chitrangada are fine/ok. Music is descent, "Subah hone na de" being the best of the lot.
Irrespective of his performance and quality of overall content, would just like to ask one Question to Akshay Kumar as a fan : “Akki, would any of the other current Superstars have taken up this role at this point in career??” I am sure that a majority of the film going public would not revert in affirmative if tossed with this query. Barring a "Patiala House" (which was also not commercially successful), I am waiting for the day I would be able to write a review like the one below sketched in 2007 for my star!! But then I am sure, that day would come soon:)

http://www.mymovies.net/reviews/review_item.asp?t=Namastey+London+-+Rochak+Vig&filmid=6196&rid=4689&s=3&n=3